A while ago, we were all concerned. We were talking at a manic pace about craft beer prices going through the roof due to the rising cost of hops, malt and fuel. It was the talk of the town a year and a half ago. In October 2007, I asked the musical question "Are Craft Beer Prices Too Low?" and answered "No, They Are Not Too Low" much to the amusement of some who read the post and the comments that it triggered. And I've been exploring the question off and on since that time. There is still much talk about the rising cost of beer but not so much about why. Jay at Hedonist Beer Jive has met the ceiling of his willingness to spend on craft beer when he found himself facing with a $24 bottle of Russian River Consecration. And Stan notes push back related to the rise of six packs to the heady nose-bleedy price of nine bucks.
Clearly people are still concerned about price and may well be more so given the global recession - and they should be. Sure, brewers need to be paid for all their efforts but we, the tipplers, want to know we are getting value for money. I think it's safe to say that fossil fuels should not be part of the price hike justification at this time. We all know that the price of oil and gas is down worldwide with the price of a barrel of oil down almost 65% and retail gasoline selling at about the same price it was in 2005. But what of malt and hops?
- In the Czech Republic, grains were up a bit from a year ago but hops were up a whopping 15.2% from March 2008.
- In Belgium, the makers of Duval state that both hops and malt prices are high but not so high that a 25% hike in dividends isn't planned.
- Earlier this month, Jim Koch of Boston Beer announced in the Fourth Quarter 2008 Earnings Results Conference Call that...well, I can't really figure out what he announced.
- The Australian malt market is trending down...trending...down
- The Canadian Wheat Board says that malting barley prices are expected to be lower in 2009-10 due to increased supplies of malting barley with prices now down from $320 a tonne for two-row to a projection of $263.
What does this all mean? Well, for one thing, the sky did not fall as was feared in 2007. For another, with craft beer sales up and some but not all significant input costs reduced these should be relatively good times for craft brewers as long as their customers have not all lost their jobs. Which does beg the question as to the $24 bottle of beer...the question still being "why?"







Comments
Elliot - March 25, 2009 10:11 PM
Just an FYI... I'm an accountant and deciphered what Bill Ulrich, the CFO for Sam Adams was saying in the earnings announcement. Basically, the cost of goods sold, which encompasses the rising costs of hops and other grain inputs, rose in 2008. It was driven mainly by packaging (i.e. the cost of bottles has been increasing due to the demand world wide for glass in developing economies and the heat necessary to produce bottles is generated by natural gas that is also driving the cost of glass higher.) Also, freight (fuel costs) were higher overall. However, Bill did say that other goods included in this figure rose too, just not enough to note separately as freight and glass costs were the lions share of the increases.
Alan - March 25, 2009 10:13 PM
Thanks Elliot! I love that clever people come by here.
Ben - March 25, 2009 11:01 PM
Funnily enough I was having the same conversation over here.A camra member stated that one of our local brewers was explaining away his cask price rises due to hops and barley, 300% in the case of hops. Having had the scare stories of not being able to brew specific beers due to the lack of hops about 12 months ago, I have been very surprised at the lack of comment from microbrewers recently regarding prices rising.
Is this because it is no longer the case?
Ben
Liverpool
The Professor - March 26, 2009 11:51 AM
What will be interesting to see is whether or not beer prices will come _down_ if barleymalt and hops eventually return to something close to previous levels. Unfortunately, in past examples of significant but ultimately temporary "materials" increases in other food/bev areas, subsequent decreases have certainly been rare.
If consumers are willing to pay the higher prices, I'm guessing that the pricing will not be reduced even if costs come down.
Wonder if they'll start charging extra for the foam?
Matt - March 26, 2009 3:21 PM
I just got some Spot market pricing on Bulk hops this week and the prices for the 2008 crop are far cheaper than what the 2007 crop was.
Alan - March 26, 2009 4:30 PM
Interesting Matt. By what percentage if you don't mind asking and are you a microbrewer? No need to name names but are you buying at that commercial volume?